The upcoming state visit between Presidents Trump and Xi offers both sides an opportunity to build upon the trade truce reached in Busan last October. After a period of significant bilateral escalation, that truce created a welcome pause, reducing tariff levels, suspending retaliatory measures, and generally putting a floor under the world’s two largest economies’ trade relationship. The question now is whether both sides can convert that truce into something more durable before key elements expire at the end of 2026. From the tech industry’s perspective, there are two major outcomes that would signal real progress in the U.S.-China trade relationship.
The first important outcome is for the U.S. to secure reliable access to Chinese critical mineral exports. China controls approximately 90 percent of global rare earth refining and nearly all processing of the heavy rare earths critical to the manufacturing of advanced technologies. While China appears to be upholding its commitments to suspend the implementation of a significant package of export controls on rare earths announced in October 2025 and issue general licenses for certain rare earths and critical minerals, companies across the technology ecosystem still report that Chinese export licenses are often delayed or denied.
While the U.S. government is investing in domestic processing capacity, and early milestones are promising, meaningful diversification away from Chinese supply is expected to take years. In the interim, reliable access to Chinese rare earths is critical to protecting global manufacturing and innovation — even a 10 percent disruption in rare earth-dependent sectors could trigger $150 billion in global losses within a year. The U.S. should ensure that companies and their Chinese suppliers are able to secure export licenses for commercial purposes in a timely manner and establish a process to help companies that face critical shortages due to licensing delays or denials.
The second key outcome is for the U.S. and China to move from a temporary truce to a more durable framework. The détente in October 2025 provided much-needed stability in the U.S.-China trade relationship. But crucial elements of that truce begin to expire as early as November 2026 and recent actions on both sides have already begun to test that stability. If a lapse triggers new escalation, companies will once again face continued unpredictability on tariffs, potential new restrictions on critical inputs, and further supply chain volatility.
The uncertainty that this looming deadline creates for companies has real implications for strategic planning and investment globally, including as companies consider making investments in the United States. The upcoming meeting between the Presidents Trump and Xi represents an opportunity to change that calculus, and both governments should use this moment to lay the groundwork for a more lasting framework that gives companies the certainty to plan, invest, grow, and ultimately, compete, across the globe.
We look forward to Presidents Trump and Xi delivering real progress for the tech industry. Addressing these two core issues will not only help stabilize the bilateral relationship but also provide companies with the runway they need to secure critical inputs and continue to invest in diversification efforts. While challenges remain between the U.S. and China, the reality is that the two economies are a key part of the global trading system, and it is crucial that both sides use this moment to put the relationship on a more stable footing.